Wheat Market Outlook – October 20, 2025

Western Canadian Markets Highlights / Key Events

WHEAT FUTURES

Minneapolis Spring Wheat

Futures sit at $5.49 per bushel on the U.S. based contract just minutes before the close on Monday. New contract lows were made this morning at $5.48 on the December contract. In the past fifteen weeks, Minneapolis wheat has only traded higher for the week twice.

Kansas City Wheat

$4.90 per bushel this morning. KC wheat sits above its contract low of $4.77 per bushel set Oct. 14, 2025.

Chicago Wheat

Chicago wheat sits at $5.05 per bushel. New contract low of $4.92 set Oct. 14, 2025.

European Wheat

MATIF wheat futures at 188.50 euro per tonne. New contract low set at 185.00 euro per tonne on Oct. 1, 2025, and showing a slight weekly loss of $0.50 per tonne.

Global Wheat Market Notable Items

Canada

Canadian wheat demand remains exceptionally strong through the first 10 weeks of the marketing year. Exports of non-durum wheat surpassing last years record pace and with 710,000 tonnes leaving the nation this past week puts total exports at 4.3 mmt vs 3.7 mmt same time last year. Durum exports were a respectable 93,000 tonnes this week with 560,000 tonnes exported total vs 592,000 tonnes same time last year. Wheat and barley exports are the two crops keeping the strength in Canadian grain exports. Total grain exports sit at 8.05 mmt vs 9.05 mmt same time last year for all crops.
- Commercial stocks of wheat are healthy at 2.6 mmt within the system and durum stocks sit at 545,000 tonnes.
Canadian crop harvest is considered All of Saskatchewan’s spring wheat crop is harvested as of Oct. 13, 2025, while 98 per cent of durum has been harvested. Manitoba and Alberta report wheat harvest is generally wrapped up.
Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture October 6 Crop Report presented some updated yield figures from their crop reporters. Provincial crop reporters pegging the CWRS crop at 51 bushels per acre (BPA) and durum at 41 BPA. Growth from one month ago when on Sept. 8, 2025, the CWRS crop was reported at 50 BPA and durum at 38 BPA. 21, 2024 yield in the final provincial crop report for the year was at 46.0 BPA for CWRS and 33.1BPA for durum. Final Saskatchewan crop report will be released Oct. 30, 2025.
Alberta reporting 55.7 BPA as their provincial average for spring wheat as of Oct. 7, 2025. 44.7 BPA was the provincial average estimate last year. Alberta stated, on Oct. 14, 2025, they will be done their crop reporting for the year.
Statistics Canada will be out with their Final Crop Production Estimates for the nation’s crops grown in 2025. The report will be released on Dec. 4, 2025, and will be compiled of producer survey results. This is different from their August 28 and September 17 reports which were based off modeled satellite imagery to build their estimates.
- Algeria made a large purchase of Canadian durum this past week. Algeria’s state grain purchasing agency purchased a total estimated amount of 400,000 tonnes of durum with an estimated 310,000 tonnes coming from Canadian origin with the remaining coming from U.S. origins. The shipment is expected to be quite prompt as November and December are the export periods and exporters will be positioning themselves accordingly. Cost and freight landed Algeria is in the $324 – $334 per tonne range.
Quality of the Canadian wheat crop (Data as of Oct. 6, 2025 CGC):
- Durum
  - Protein – 2025 Protein Content at 14.8 per cent vs 15.3 per cent last year. (December Final Report) (All Grades)
  - Grade – 48 per cent of samples either #1 or #2 CWAD in 2025 vs 73 per cent last year (December Final Report) 5 per cent of the Durum in 2025 fell in the #3 category vs just 12.5 per cent last year. More precipitation during harvest is being blamed. Severely sprouted kernels, midge damage, mildew, fusarium and weight are the major factors putting more into the #3 category this year vs last. Last year it was almost exclusively weight being the factor for #3 durum.
- Canadian Western Red Spring Wheat
  - Protein –2025 Protein Content at 13.8 per cent vs 14.1 per cent last year. (December Final Report) (All Grades)
  - Grade – 98 per cent of wheat grading #1 or #2 CWRS vs 94 per cent last year. The factors pushing the slight amount below the #2 grade include Fusarium and sprouting, although overall the CWRS from the samples took in until October 6 report date were of mostly good quality.

U.S.

USDA wheat export net inspections for week ending Oct. 16, 2025. Wheat cumulative exports sit at 11.2 mmt vs last year’s 9.3mmt. 480,000 tonnes for the week. Corn exports sit at 9.3 mmt vs 5.8 mmt last year. Soybeans sit at 5.5 mmt vs 8.0 mmt last year.
U.S. government shutdown is entering its 20^th day. For agriculture markets this has resulted in there being no October USDA WASDE or FAS reports. There are also no export sales reports from the United States, weekly harvest (crop progress) reports or CFTC futures commitment of trader’s reports leaving the market with less fundamental data to trade upon. The November USDA reports could be at risk as well if no resolution is reached.

Black Sea

Ukraine wheat exports at 5.1 mmt are cumulative for the season and are 25 per cent below last year’s levels. Ukrainian wheat exports have been behind last year’s pace for the entire exporting season so far.
Russia export taxes this week sit at $4 USD per tonne vs $6 USD last week.
Turkey MARS has reported due to early drought conditions there are wheat production cuts expected for the 2025/26 wheat production year. Expectations of 19.5 mmt wheat production which would be a 1.3 mmt haircut from the year prior. Of note, Turkey’s durum 2025/26 crop is estimated at 3.7 mmt vs 4.4 mmt prior year.

Argentina

Rosario Grain Exchange reporting 2025/26 wheat production at 23.0 mmt which is 3 mmt higher than their prior estimate. 18.5mmt was the number from the local ag ministry the year prior. There have been very few issues with this upcoming crop. According to the Argentinian Ag Ministry, they have forward sold about 4.1 mmt of crop for the upcoming harvest or around 18 per cent of the upcoming anticipated harvest.

France

The French farm ministry trimmed wheat production estimates for the recently harvested crop by 100,000 tonnes to land at 33.2 mmt which is up 29 per cent year-over-year after last year’s production issues. This would still be up 4 per cent on the five-year average. Durum crop is maintained at 1.3 mmt which is up 3 per cent year-over-year but down 6 per cent from the five-year average.

International

Egypt bought two ships worth of wheat (100,000 tonnes+-) from France for $240 FOB equivalent.
Saudi Arabia bought 500,000 tonnes of wheat for an undisclosed value for delivery in January to April 2026.
Tunisia was in for 100,000 tonnes of milling wheat at $254.58 c&f per tonne for Nov/Dec shipment.
Jordan purchased 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat for $262.50 c&f for February shipment.
Australia will release their Updated Crop Production Estimates on Dec. 2, 2025 for their soon-to-be harvested wheat crop.

Market Outlook – Wheat

Wheat futures markets still hover near their five-year lows and futures on the front month Minneapolis contract sit at $5.49 per bushel. The last time wheat futures were at this level was December of 2020. Kansas City and Chicago wheat finding a bit more ground recently, although contract lows remain very close in the rearview mirror. Wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops and the recent upgrades to Argentinian wheat production levels and anticipation that the Australian crop could grow vs shrink in size has wheat markets resistant to make a move higher. The market will need to make its moves higher on demand related stories. North American demand Is perceived as just fine with both U.S. demand forecasted to be strong and Canadian export pace being rapid. European and Black Sea shipping pace is behind pace, and we will need to see true demand pick up out of the region. There are a few key importers behind pace on imports, and we need to see these importers step up to the plate to keep demand moving forwards. Global wheat bids are relatively stable, some few-dollar moves in FOB values each week but relative stability. We will move out of harvest pressure in northern hemisphere and transition into winter exporting season. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies sit just below $7 and we are still on hold for making big sales as we hover and trod along our five-year lows. Strong demand for CWRS is anticipated throughout the winter, we will be watching if U.S. trade deals or MOUs with nations such as Bangladesh on wheat pull from Canadian demand. As we head into winter another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops.

Market Outlook – Durum

The Canadian durum crop has grown through harvest as later estimates point towards a larger crop. Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria will only improve export prospects for the short term. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 41BPA average for durum vs a 33 BPA average just one year ago. Market prices have stabilized recently domestically following harvest lows. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Crop prices domestically have stabilized and are seeing crop prices in the $7.50 to $7.75+ per bushel range across Saskatchewan and have picked up around $0.25 per bushel over the past month. Global import demand expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year’s 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing well into EU and North Africa.

CASH MARKETS

It’s the season of demand stories where the markets shift away from northern hemisphere production prospects to demand outlooks. Reports of buyers awaiting on the sidelines as demand needs are not immediate and can afford to play out the markets for the time being. We are seeing more importers coming to the market with some major purchased being made by Bangladesh, Algeria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Continued supporting news at this point needs to come from demand as market understands supply side with Australian and Argentinian crops prospects expected to be good.

GLOBAL PURCHASES AND TENDERS

Algeria tendered for durum late last week. A massive 400,000 tonnes of durum was spoken for with 310,000 tonnes of durum coming from Canada and 90,000 tonnes from U.S. suppliers. Price at $324 – $334 C&F split between November and December shipment.
Egypt bought two ships worth of wheat (100,000 tonnes+-) from France for $240 FOB equivalent.
Saudi Arabia bought 500,000 tonnes of wheat for an undisclosed value for delivery in January to April 2026.
Tunisia was in for 100,000 tonnes of milling wheat at $254.58 c&f per tonne for Nov/Dec shipment.
Jordan purchased 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat for $262.50 c$f for February shipment.

FUTURES MARKETS

Futures continue to carve out their lows and find themselves near the bottom end of their 52-week trading range. Harvest pressure and lack of bullish fundamental stories keeping market trends unchanged. CFTC Commitment of Traders Data are not available due to the U.S. government shutdown. Last available data below.

Seasonal Charts – Minneapolis Spring Wheat – Average (Green Line) Current Year (Black Line)

Seasonal Charts – Chicago Wheat – Average (Green Line) Current Year (Black Line)

Wheat Market Outlook and Prices