Wheat Market Outlook – September 8, 2025

Western Canadian Markets Highlights / Key Events

See the attached Global Wheat Fundamental page in the report where you can see all the latest fundamental supply and disposition estimates for global wheat key markets.

WHEAT FUTURES

Minneapolis Spring Wheat

Futures sit at $5.80 per bushel on the U.S. based contract, up $0.14 per bushel at the time of writing, in its biggest single day gain since early July 2025 and bouncing off new contract lows set late in last week’s trade. Despite today’s large gain on the December contract, prices have touched back to values seen in the last trading days of August. Short covering action in today’s trade.

Kansas City Wheat

Up $0.12 per bushel at the time of writing and sits at $5.17 per bushel. KC wheat still holding onto a $0.04 weekly loss position. Some short covering action.

Chicago Wheat

Chicago is the weakest of today’s gains, up $0.04 and posting a $0.11 loss for the past five trading days. Chicago is up at $5.23 per bushel, a move higher from its contract low of $5.14 on September 4.

European Wheat

MATIF wheat futures are at 191 per tonne, up from contract lows set on September 4 of 188 euro per tonne.

Global Wheat Market Notable Items

Australian harvest prospects are rising with the latest Australian ABARES report released last week. 33.7 mmt is the data that ABARES released, and we will not get another ABARES report similar to this one until December. Many of Australia’s top regions are reporting that if weather holds in the next month, the crop size could continue to grow vs shrink. ABARES added around 3 mmt to the nation’s crop size from the June report.
Canadian harvest is underway, and Statistics Canada (StatsCan) has the Canadian wheat crop at 35.5 mmt (35.9 mmt last year). StatsCan will release an inventories report tomorrow, September 9. On September 17 StatsCan will also provide an update to its crop size estimates using a model-based program.
United States wheat harvest is almost complete with spring wheat nearly 80 per cent completed and durum reported at 80 per cent complete in Montana and 53 per cent in North Dakota.
USDA WASDE and FAS reports are out on Friday, September 12 at noon Eastern time, which will provide a fresh set of fundamentals. Since the last USDA WASDE we have had significant harvest progress in the European, Black Sea and North American crops. Since this time, the Argentinian crop has been planted, and the Australian crop has benefited from some rain. Analysts will be watching the report closely to see the agency’s fundamental take on wheat.
European Commission has its latest projection (Late August) for the durum crop at 8.3 mmt, unchanged from the July estimate. Last year the crop size was 7.2 mmt. The Italian crop accounted for much of these gains, reported by the commission at 4.25 mmt. According to the International Grains Council (IGC), the durum crop last year in Italy was around 3.5 mmt, and similar production in the year prior as well.
European and Black Sea wheat values dropped lower week over week. There are reports of increased farmer selling now that the crop is being made available to the market.
Global wheat markets feel a lack of any real threat with increased production prospects from Australia and a good crop reported in Argentina, yet early in its growing season. Canadian and U.S. wheat crops are coming off without issue, and EU and Black Sea crop harvest is mostly completed.
European Union wheat exports as of last week are off to a slow pace with 2.7 mmt exported which is down 38 per cent year over year.
Ukrainian wheat export pace is lower as well with a 38 per cent drop in export pace year over year as well with 2.1 mmt exported.
JRC Mars latest August report placed European Union soft wheat yield estimates at 6.15 tonnes per hectare, up from 6.09 tonnes in last month’s update and the five-year average of 5.77 tonnes per hectare. For durum, the agency placed yields slightly below at 3.76 tonnes per hectare, down from 3.78 in July’s estimate and above the five-year average of 3.41 t/ha.

North American Harvest Progress

Alberta

Is reporting 26 per cent of its spring wheat crop is off as of September 2. With progress made last week and a good forecast for the week ahead, much of the spring wheat will be off and available to the market shortly. Crop yields are expected to come in higher than the past year. Alberta is reporting spring wheat yield estimates at 50.6 BPA for a provincial average vs 46.3 BPA at the same end of August report last year. Central regions (North of Calgary, Red Deer, Lacombe) are expected to carry the provincial average higher, reporting just shy of 63 BPA in the area while the Peace Region comes in at 40.3 BPA due to prolonged dryness. Alberta will provide us with another in depth harvest progress update again on September 12 and we are expecting to see provincial yield estimates in this issue.

Saskatchewan

The Ministry of Agriculture crop report out later this week will provide yield estimates from its crop reporter-based group, giving us its first yield estimate of the harvest. Yields seem to be strongest in Central and Southern regions of the province and weakest on the Northern fringes. No quality concerns being reported yet with spring wheat or durum wheat. Late season rains in August had producers worried about quality issues arising, but the concerns have been a nonissue in many cases. Spring wheat protein appears to be coming in 13-14 per cent in initial anecdotal reports. Quality is good and no real market concerns over falling number or other grading factors so far. Spring wheat harvest was reported at 14 per cent completed on September 1 and with the warm and dry week ahead, we could see that number jump to over half completed by the end of this upcoming week. Durum harvest was reported at 30 per cent completed as of September 1 and significant progress has been made in the past week. Overall, Saskatchewan harvest is reported at 23 per cent completed as of September 1, which is behind the five-year average of 40 per cent. Certainly, a later start to harvest.

Manitoba

The September 3 crop report has yields being reported at between 50-60 BPA for spring wheat. Manitoba’s yield reports from the provincial report have been widely varied. There are reports of yields in the Holland, Treherne and Portage la Prairie regions being much lower, while the Pembina valley could take off record spring wheat yields. For the Prairies overall, the Vegetative Health Index listed below in the report does draw a what we believe to be fair analysis of where yield reports fall. Northern growing regions of the Prairies have been the most challenged throughout the season while Southern areas of the Prairies have benefitted from precipitation.
Frost hit a large region of the Canadian Prairies and into North Dakota this past week. A map is shown below for visual reference. The spring wheat and durum crops were thought to be mature enough that the acres affected would be minimal. The frost will have affected some later maturing canola acres, but wheat and durum acreage would be minimally impacted.

U.S. spring wheat primary states (North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, South Dakota)

Harvest progress was expected to be over 80 per cent completed as of last Friday. U.S. spring wheat quality is good with samples coming into the U.S. Wheat Associates averaging a #1. Yields being reported above average.
14.2 per cent average protein. The five-year average is 14.5 per cent. Last year was 14.1 per cent.
First durum samples are being reported as a #2 with a protein content of 13.7 per cent vs last year’s 14.3 per cent and five-year average of 14.1 per cent (U.S. Wheat Associates).

Demand Highlights

United States

United States 2025/26 accumulated new crop sales commitments for all wheat sit around 12.4 million tonnes, up from 10.9 million tonnes at the same time last year, which is 21 per cent ahead of last year. Of this, durum sales are up 15 per cent and spring wheat sales are down by 8 per cent, but overall cumulative total wheat sales are higher. Hard Red Winter wheat sales are leading the charge. Of all the top buyers, Mexico is on the books for 2.1 mmt which is 24 per cent higher than the same time last year.

Canada

Week 4 wheat export charts attached below. In the first four weeks of data released, export pace is very close to last year. The first four weeks of exports are related to old crop inventories, but we will start to see this shift to new crop as the supplies get loaded onto trains and hit export facilities. For the reader of this report, we will continue to add charts in the upcoming weeks, it will be highly important to see how export pace continues from here on out. For reference to how last year finished off, Canadian non-durum exports for the 2024/25 marketing year, according to the Canadian Grain Commission Week 52 cumulative data, wheat exports came in at 22.4 mmt vs last year’s 21.2 mmt or 6 per cent higher over last year’s pace which was a record setting export year.
Canadian 2024/25 durum export pace wrapped up the recent marketing year at 5.79 mmt vs the year priors 3.5 mmt. Exports largely exceeded earlier estimates in the crop marketing year. Once again, when we see new crop durum hitting the market, the figures will be most important to watch.

Market Outlook – What to Watch With Wheat

Wheat markets continue to grind near their contract lows on the futures markets and sit at levels seen back in early 2021. Markets have a better understanding of wheat supplies now that the European, Black Sea, United States and Canadian crops are either off or close to wrapping up their harvest season. The Australian crop looks favourable and has seen some major improvements in the past two months. The Argentinian crop looks great and that story will play out in the coming months as well. There is a lack of any major concerns for the market to work with right now and that has kept the narrative sideways to lower. Demand is the item being watched as export pace is slow in some regions with reports of buyers remaining on the sidelines seeing how low prices may move before making any major commitments. With supplies relatively well understood, we will need to see stories build on the demand side. Next thing the market will watch as we move throughout the calendar will be EU and Black Sea winter crop planting. Nothing major to report on that side of the equation yet, but we will report on it when relevant.

Market Outlook – Durum

Canadian producers will need to see strong export demand throughout the marketing year. Canadian durum is expected to be of good quality for export but will need to remain competitive globally. European production is estimated at 8.3 mmt vs last year’s 7.2 mmt has weighed on EU prices. Global durum carryout is expected to jump to 7 mmt, up by 400,000 tonnes over last year’s ending stock estimate. Canadian durum crop size is estimated by the IGC at 5.8 mmt but Statistics Canada’s latest release has the figure closer to 6.1 mmt. Canadian durum values are under harvest pressure as supplies become available to the market. Statistics Canada stocks report released tomorrow, September 9, will be closely watched by market participants globally.

Vegetative Health Index Measurement – Statistics Canada – July 28 – August 3

Low Temperatures in Past 7 Days – AAFC

Cash Markets: Global values are mostly lower for the week. Markets are looking for a demand story as many key exporting nations’ exports are behind pace. There are reports of buyers waiting on the sidelines as demand needs are not immediate and they can afford to play out the markets for the time being. Major news at this point is likely to come from demand as the market feels to understand the supply side.

Global Purchases and Tenders

Tunisia is reported to have purchased 125,000 tonnes of common wheat in the $255 to $257 range C&F October and November shipment.
Jordan purchased 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat (August 27) at reported values of $267.50 C&F for October shipment. Tendering for another 120,000 tonnes today for Oct/Nov shipment.
Egypt has reportedly inked a deal to buy 200,000 tonnes of wheat from French origin and some separate shipments from both Romania and Ukraine.
- It is reported that Egypt has secured at least 400,000 tonnes of wheat throughout August in the $265 to $270 per tonne range C&F.

Global Wheat Futures Dashboard

Minneapolis Spring Wheat Futures – Nearest Contract – Rolls on Volume – $/BU

Kansas City Wheat Futures – Nearest Contract – Rolls on Volume – Cents/BU

Chicago Wheat Futures – Nearest Contract – Rolls on Volume – Cents/BU

Euronext MATIF Wheat Futures – Nearest Contract – Rolls on Volume – Euro per Tonne

Futures Markets

Futures continue to carve out their lows and find themselves near the bottom end of their 52-week trading range. Harvest pressure and lack of bullish fundamental stories keeping market suppressed.

***The export basis can be calculated by taking the FOB port position price minus the primary elevator price at any given prairie delivery location. The export basis reflects transportation costs plus any premiums being captured by terminal grain elevator companies or railway companies, at any given time. In this case, we take the FOB price at the Port of Vancouver, minus the elevator price in NW Saskatchewan to calculate the “export” basis.

A widening basis generally signals decreasing grain transportation system performance in terms of either reduced port capacity or rail service, or both. A narrowing basis signals increased available port capacity and/or better ability of the railways to provide ample service to grain shippers. Given these signals, tracking the export basis over time has value both in terms of producers being able track seasonal trends and time the selling of their grain but also for evaluating and setting policy related to various transportation and capacity issues. Gray (2015) has calculated a normal basis to be in the range of C$72/tonne.

Wheat Market Outlook and Prices