Prairie FHB Risk Map info update July 2024

The Prairie Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) Risk Map interactive tool provides information on the risk of FHB, fusarium damaged kernel (FDK), and deoxynivalenol (DON) for spring wheat, durum, winter wheat and barley across the agricultural region of the Canadian Prairies.

The new FHB risk maps indicate varying risk levels between crop types, which is expected. For example, the durum and barley maps have been showing a low risk for FHB while spring wheat maps have been showing a higher risk level. These risk levels are contrary to what producers expect, especially for durum, as it is more susceptible to FHB than spring wheat.

For each crop and risk type, the risk model algorithms were developed independently of each other and were selected based on their individual statistical accuracy. Significant efforts have been and continue to be made to ensure the risk maps represent risk accurately for different cereal crops and regions of the prairies. The risk maps are based on air temperature, humidity, and precipitation levels reported at weather stations. Each algorithm uses different weather parameters, including air temperature, humidity, and precipitation levels reported at weather stations. As a result, the risk level determined at a given location and a given day can vary between the different models.

For instance, FHBi risk was best predicted in durum when humidity is above 80% and temperature is between 15-30°C. For barley, the selected parameters are rainfall and temperature between 25-28 °C. While spring wheat risk is based on maximum relative humidity and temperature. The algorithms selected for each crop best represented the risk to that crop over the past five years.

It is important to note that if your field is irrigated, the risk level displayed on this map may not be representative for your field. The FHB risk level on irrigated fields is normally higher than that shown on this map because the weather data input does not account for irrigation practices that have an influence on parameters that influence fusarium.

Until the start of July 2024, we did not have many hours that meet both conditions to hit the high-risk thresholds for the maps for durum and barley. This reinforces that the FHB risk maps are a tool that should be used in conjunction with daily field scouting, field history, crop rotation, crop stage, economics and the producers’ own individual risk tolerance.

If you want to discuss the maps further, please contact your provincial cereal crop commissions or pathologists.

About the maps

New Prairie-wide Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) risk maps are now available to producers in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The tool provides assessment of Fusarium Head Blight Index (FHBi), Fusarium-damaged kernels (FDK), and Deoxynivalenol (DON) risk levels in spring wheat, winter wheat, barley and durum, based on weather conditions.

These risk maps were created as part of a three-year research project led by the University of Manitoba’s Dr. Paul Bullock, with collaborators from Alberta Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, Manitoba Agriculture, Manitoba Crop Alliance (MCA), Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission (Sask Wheat), Saskatchewan Barley Development Commission (SaskBarley) and Alberta Grains.

“The Faculty is very pleased to release this important risk management tool for the agriculture industry,” said Dr. Martin Scanlon, dean of the faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences at the University of Manitoba.

“The project is a great example of multi-institutional collaboration, where the combined skills and talents of both federal and provincial agricultural personnel, plus university collaborators, has facilitated research outcomes that could not have been achieved otherwise.”

The weather-based risk is calculated using real-time weather data from more than 500 stations operated by Environment and Climate Change Canada, the Manitoba AgWeather Program, Saskatchewan Public Safety, Alberta Climate Information System and Metos Canada. The risk algorithms are “homegrown” based on research data collected from 600 plot sites across 15 locations in Western Canada each year from 2019 through 2021 and tested in more than 300 producer fields on the Prairies during the same period. Previous FHB risk maps utilized imported FHB risk algorithms with limited accuracy testing and could not assess risk in barley or durum, nor for either FDK or DON. The risk mapping tool is publicly available and accessible using a smartphone, tablet or desktop computer.

The risk for disease severity varies considerably by location and year because of variable weather during the lead-up period prior to flowering. The tool has both financial and environmental benefits, since the need to apply fungicide for disease control at a given location also varies from one extreme to the other.

“Sask Wheat is excited to bring Saskatchewan producers an updated tool to use in the ongoing threat posed by FHB,” said Sask Wheat Executive Director, Blair Goldade. “This risk map, in conjunction with daily field monitoring, will help producers identify the level of risk for FHB infection and determine if a management strategy, such as an application of a fungicide, is warranted.”

The project was funded through the Integrated Crop Agronomy Cluster with funding from the Canadian Agriculture Partnership, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Western Grains Research Foundation, MCA, Sask Wheat, Alberta Grains, Brewing and Malting Barley Research Institute and Prairie Oat Growers Association. The FHB risk mapping tool is available at prairiefhb.ca.

Watch a demonstration on how to use the new mapping tool